Question: What is the last Cloud financial projection you heard or read about? What was the number? Was it an astronomical figure slated for more than five years removed? If you’re like me, I constantly read Cloud Computing projection articles which lay claim to Cloud services and data center services gaining X level of revenue by X year. Also, if you’re like me, the more articles you read about the financial projections of Cloud Computing solutions, the less and less you trust the projections. Sure, it’s great to say that Cloud hosted services will head north of $135 billion by 2020, but the truth is, all the projected figures are just that, projected financial figures. Just like projections for stocks, no one really knows if a certain number is going to be hit or not.
The answer is simple. At the rate technology moves, no one knows what tech is going to be dominating the market in five year let alone two. For all detailed studies and reports, no one has any idea if another technology will be created/trump Cloud Computing in two years. With this being the case, attaching a financial figure to relatively new technology which is just now catching on is silly at best.
The other major reason why stating Cloud Computing services will be north of $150 billion by 2025 serves no one is public adoption of services. Question: outside of IT professionals and the tech minded, what part of the public understands how RAM, Bandwidth, CPU Cores and Disk Space impact a hosted environment? What part of the public understands what virtualization technologies are and how they impact a hypervisor environment? What part of the public market understands what a bare metal Cloud server is?
If the public has no concern about the overall infrastructure behind Cloud services, what makes any financial analyst trust a projection which hinges on public understanding of services provided? Sure, everyone loves Spotify and Facebook, but how many consumers understands how the business end of the Cloud actually works? From all the studies, the answer is somewhere between slim to none.
So, do I trust the financial projections for Cloud hosting services by [insert_chosen_year_here]? No. I don’t. Do I think Cloud services will continue to grow and dominate the market for the foreseeable future? Yes. However, I am not confident enough in my inner Nostradamus to confidently say in 2022, Cloud Computing will dominate the market. For all we know, by 2022, another technology will pop up to supplant Cloud services. If history tells us anything, when it comes to tech, everything comes and goes very quickly. Why should grid computing be any different?
But than again, I could be wrong.